Coup in Niger: ECOWAS, Don't Stir Up the Hornet's Nest II

 Coup in Niger: ECOWAS, Don't Stir Up the Hornet's Nest II

By

Prof. MK Othman

I must continue beating the peace drum as heinous fire threatens my neighborhood, Niger Republic. The Nigeria-Niger border has seven states – Kebbi, Sokoto, Zamfara, Katsina, Jigawa, Yobe, and Borno covering a distance of 1,608 km. Firing one shot in Niger will massively inject a colossal wave of refugees into these states and escalate gigantic firearms and ammunitions in the hands of non-state actors for nefarious activities. Is the restoration of President Mohamed Bazoum to power worth igniting the catastrophic action of war in the West African Sub-region? Whose interest is ECOWAS trying to protect?

As mentioned last week, democracy is the best form of government for the people by the people and of the people. Democracy is an evolutionary process nurtured over time, requiring inclusiveness, collective ownership, and self-belonging. Even in Nigeria, we cannot boast of entrenching a democracy as long as vote-buying and selling significantly count in our democratic elections. How many of our elected representatives at both executives and legislatures came to power without the monetary inducement of the electorates? Why don't we work to perfect our democratic process instead of intervening in the internal affairs of another country? In any case, the coup in Niger was the fourth in Francophone countries of Africa in recent years. It may not be the last as long as leaders implement the neo-colonial policies of France many decades after their independence.  

As said in this column last week, a coup d’état is a bad omen to any country, no matter the situation. It is an aberration, retrogressive, and must end within the 21st century. The Niger coup is the most retrogressive as there are no tangible reasons why the plotters staged it. The lust for power and survival were the primary motivations for the coup, as they merely concocted the bases after they executed the deeds. President Bazoum was working hard to stabilize the country and liberate it from the shackles of France's neo-colonization policies. 

Niger is a landlocked country with a high cost of living estimated at $1016, which is 61% higher than in Nigeria. In the country, 41% of the population lives in extreme poverty, and 40% of the state budget comprises foreign aid. Due to conflicts in neighboring Burkina Faso, Mali, and Nigeria, Niger is also dealing with an influx of refugees. The coup has undoubtedly brought economic stagnation and untold hardship to the Nigeriens.

Now, two significant forces in the conflicts have produced a stalemate situation that needs careful handling before degenerating into a cyst pool of explosively ravaging flame in the region. 

The coup plotters are stabilizing, painting the coup as a kind of revolution, attracting the support of the citizens while holding Bazoum as a bargaining chip. Their future is bleak for the junta as foreign support finances more than 40% of Niger's annual budget. With the closure of borders and the termination of foreign support from the EU and America, it will be difficult for them to survive the heat. Their pretense of being revolutionaries is a big joke because General Abdourahamane Tchiani, the leader of the junta who declared himself head of state, was the head of Niger's presidential guard during former president Mahamadou Issoufou and continued with Bazoum. The hands of Wagner, the Russian private military contractor, are believed to support the coup plotters; by extension, the junta has the blessing of Russia. Will that help Niger out of its economic doldrums? It is doubtful; rather, Niger will be a testing ground for the newly manufactured weapons, exacerbating the lingering insecurity situation. Several insurgent groups are operating in northern Niger, such as Al-Qaeda and Islamic State affiliates, as well as Boko Haram.

ECOWAS, as the regional bloc and significant force in the conflicts, made a strategic mistake by giving a one-week ultimatum to the junta to comply and warned it would take all measures necessary – including pressure – to restore constitutional order. The request lapsed with the plotters being more deviant, which made ECOWAS leaders gather for another meeting. At the end of the session, the ECOWAS leaders noted that "the military leadership of the Republic of Niger has defiantly repelled all diplomatic efforts made by ECOWAS in resolving the crisis." They also noted " the expiration of the one-week ultimatum given for the restoration of constitutional order in the Republic of Niger." Adding that"The Committee of the Chief of Defense Staff to activate the ECOWAS standby force with all its elements immediately." They also ordered "the deployment of the ECOWAS standby force to restore constitutional order in the Republic of Niger." Furthermore, they demanded "enforce all measures, in particular, border closures, and strict travel bans and assets freeze on all persons or groups of individuals whose actions hinder all peaceful efforts aimed at ensuring the smooth and complete restoration of constitutional order."

A day after the second warning by the ECOWAS, Russia warned that military intervention in Niger would lead to a "protracted confrontation" implying that Russia will not be a spectator in case of ECOWAS military intervention. Already, the junta is securing military support from Mali and Guinea, fellow coup plotters.   

These last two weeks of muscle-flexing by both parties are setting to ignite possible military action against Niger, which will be highly consequential in the region, particularly Nigeria, Africa's most populous country. 

It is in Nigeria's best interest not to allow military intervention in Niger. Today, Nigerians are under severe economic hardship, and the country is deeply indebted and cannot afford additional expenditure through military action against a neighboring country. What is the best option?

 ECOWAS should continue with economic sanctions against the junta, with the suspension of aid, economic blockage, and diplomatic approach making the plotters come to the negotiation table. The junta must set a maximum one-year transition program to civil rule as part of give and take. Bozoum should be released and be allowed to participate in the political dispensation if he wishes. Open the Niger borders and lift the economic sanctions while the parties nurse their wounds and record lessons to avoid future costly military escapades.